The government’s woeful teacher recruitment numbers are set to fall even further this year, new research suggests, with ministers on track to miss targets by the widest mark since at least 2008.
The National Foundation for Educational Research’s (NFER) annual labour market report also shows vacancies are nearly twice as high as before the pandemic.
It predicts ministers will fall short of their target for primary teachers this year by more than 20 per cent.
Half of secondary subjects are also on course for a shortfall of 20 per cent or more in 2023-24.
This would see the Department for Education (DfE) suffering the biggest shortfall since it introduced initial teacher training (ITT) targets.
It follows an abysmal year for recruitment, with the DfE also missing overall secondary and primary targets last year.
Jack Worth, NFER’s school workforce lead and co-author of the report, described the figures as “alarming”.
Niamh Sweeney, deputy general secretary of the National Education Union, said it shows the recruitment crisis is “entrenched”.
“Year after year, this government has failed to truly recognise the scale and severity of the issue.”
Here’s your trusty Schools Week round up of the key findings…
1. Recruitment of primary trainees plummets
NFER used DfE data on ITT applications up to 27 February this year to predict where things might stand once recruitment closes.
As the department is yet to publish its targets for this year, forecasts are based on last year’s targets and “thus subject to some level of uncertainty”, the report states.
But the study found just 79 per cent of primary teacher recruitment target is set to be met – a drop of 14 percentage points since last year, then the primary target was missed for the first time since 2019.
The report notes that as primary recruitment has historically tended to be close to target, last year’s figure “demonstrates the high degree of recruitment challenge” facing the sector.
2. Half of secondary subjects set for big shortfall
In 2022-23, only 59 per cent of the overall secondary target was met. The individual target for 13 out of 17 secondary subjects was also missed.
NFER forecasts that 14 out of 17 subject targets are on course to be missed this year. Of those, nine are expected to be 20 per cent or more below target.
This includes physics, computing, design & technology, business studies and modern foreign languages (MFL).
Only biology, history, classics and physical education are predicted to meet recruitment targets.
3. Restoring bursaries has improved recruitment
The DfE hiked teacher training bursaries for many subjects this year, after large cuts following a Covid-related boom in recruits.
NFER’s analysis shows these increases “appear to be having a somewhat positive effect on these subjects”.
As of February, overall placed applicants in subjects that saw a boost to bursaries were 13 per cent higher than the previous year.
But placed applicants in subjects that did not see a rise were 10 per cent lower.
4. Physics set for biggest shortfall (again) …
According to the study, just 19 per cent of the target for physics teachers could be met this year. It marks little change from 2022-23, when only 17 per cent of the target was met.
But the report underlines that targets – based on the Teacher Workforce Model (TWM) – take account of previous under recruitment.
Physics, which is often the subject with the lowest recruitment in terms of meeting its target, has seen the target nearly double since 2020-21.
5. … and maths target may not ‘reflect’ need
Maths has tended to recruit below target In the two years before the pandemic, the number of recruits was 70 and 65 per cent of the target respectively.
Last year, 90 per cent of the target was achieved and this year, the NFER predicts the picture to be similar – at 89 per cent.
But the improvement does not reflect an increase in the actual number of trainees, which has fallen since the pandemic. Instead, targets have been reduced with “little explanation”.
DfE data shows 12 per cent of maths lessons are currently taught by a teacher without a relevant degree-level qualification.
NFER recommended government publish the TWM in full to “provide transparency” on how targets are estimated to ensure “public faith in the target-setting process”.
6. Teacher vacancies double since pre-pandemic
In February 2023, teacher vacancies were 93 per cent higher than at the same point in the year before the pandemic and 37 per cent higher than in 2021-22.
NFER stressed these were “at least somewhat related to previous trends in leaving rates”.
In 2020-21, when leaving rates were low and recruitment was high, teacher vacancies dipped compared to pre-pandemic.
“Along with substantially lower recruitment into teaching, higher leaving rates will exacerbate existing teacher shortages, and likely mean that many schools will continue to struggle with recruitment challenges this year,” the report said.
7. Job benefits not keeping pace with other sectors
NFER noted the government’s commitment to raising starting salaries for teachers to £30,000 by 2023 could have a “positive effect” on the retention of early careers teachers.
But it could be “counterbalanced” by experienced teachers leaving the profession as their earnings deteriorate in comparison to the wider market.
The report recommends the 2023 pay award, which the DfE has proposed should be 3.5 per cent, should exceed the 4.1 per cent forecasted earnings rise in the wider labour market.
The government should develop a long-term strategy for improving the competitiveness of teacher pay, it added.
“People looking at teaching as a career choice can see that there will be inadequate pay progression as they gain experience and responsibility,” said Paul Whiteman, general secretary of leaders’ union NAHT.
NFER also points out that in 2021-22, teachers worked on average 4.5 hours more per week than similar graduates.
In the same year, nearly half (44 per cent) of similar graduates reported working mainly from home, up from 15 per cent in 2018-19.
“The lack of availability of home working may therefore represent a threat to the relative attractiveness of teaching,” it said.
The report recommends the government funds further research to better understand teachers’ flexible working preferences.
A DfE spokesperson said: “The Government and the education trade unions, Association of School and College Leaders, National Association of Head Teachers, NASUWT and National Education Union, have agreed to move into a period of intensive talks. The talks will focus on teacher pay, conditions and workload reduction.”
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